Our 2026 sustainability predictions

Is 2026 the year sustainability hits a wall—or finds a new gear?

At Kōan, we’ve analysed the emerging trends to forecast a year defined by tough choices and unexpected drivers. From the rise of 'regulatory realism' in the EU to Asia’s surprise leadership in due diligence, our 2026 predictions decode the signals defining the year ahead. Here is our take on the five critical shifts that will redefine the sustainability agenda and reshape how companies operate this year.

1. Sustainability will compete with short-term priorities

With rising geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty, we predict a growing friction between immediate needs and long-term climate realities. Governments are increasingly forced to choose between energy security or national defense and the worsening impacts of nature loss. As extreme weather disrupts infrastructure and supply chains, the cost of delaying sustainability is becoming a risk that even the most short-term agendas can no longer ignore.

2. Expect some more regulatory simplification in the EU

Regulatory simplification will be a defining theme for the EU in 2026. Following the Omnibus agreement’s clarification of the CSRD, we expect the Commission to streamline other major frameworks like CSDDD, EUDR, and CBAM. While these regulations are ambitious and central to the EU’s sustainability strategy, they’ve been critiqued for creating short-term economic pressure and competitiveness concerns for European businesses. The upcoming public consultations will be a critical 'sanity check' for European sustainability strategy.

3. Making AI sustainable

AI offers strong potential to help solve sustainability challenges, but its fast growth also creates new pressures. The expansion of AI data centers will increase demand for energy, raise emissions, and strain water resources. At the same time, the productivity gains from AI are unlikely to fully compensate for labour shortages caused by an aging global population. This makes AI both a powerful tool and a growing risk that needs to be monitored and managed carefully.

4. Shifting focus on climate adaptation and resilience 

As extreme weather events continue to intensify, investment priorities will increasingly shift beyond mitigation toward climate adaptation and resilience. Companies and governments will place greater emphasis on strengthening infrastructure to withstand climate impacts, improving risk forecasting capabilities, and using climate intelligence to anticipate and manage future disruptions. These long-term strategies will be essential to protecting physical assets, safeguarding communities, and ensuring the stability and continuity of global supply chains in an increasingly unpredictable environment.

5. Asia in the sustainability spotlight

While momentum in the West appears to be plateauing, Asia is emerging as a new hub for regulatory leadership. We are closely watching Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand, where mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence bills are expected to advance in 2026. This shift indicates that corporate accountability is becoming a global standard, driven by Asian markets even as others pause.

Are you prepared for the 2026 sustainability landscape?

While our predictions point to a more fragmented and fragile global landscape, they also reveal massive opportunities for those ready to lead. From the rise of climate intelligence to the emerging leadership of Asian markets, the sustainability map is being redrawn. Navigating 2026 will require agility, better data, and a willingness to adapt to a 'simplified' but still demanding regulatory world.